Retirement Estimator

Social Security

A component of many retirees’ retirement income is their monthly Social Security payment. The Social Security Administration web site is a valuable resource when planning your retirement – specifically future retirement income.

The site has a Retirement Estimator, which estimates your future retirement benefits. The tool calculates your benefits based on “Your actual earnings history as maintained by the Social Security Administration, additional information you provide about future earnings, and the age at which you expect to stop working.”

The Retirement Estimator produces an estimate and you can create additional scenarios by modifying your inputs.

It is simple to get started by providing answers to the following five questions:
Name
Social Security Number
Date of birth
Place of birth
Mother’s maiden name
Please note that you will be prompted to read and accept the Acknowledgment of Online Services statement on the site.

The Social Security Administration web site provides information and fact sheets on topics of interest including this two-page overview titled Your Retirement Benefit: How is it Figured.

There is a Retirement section with frequently asked questions and a search feature to easily look for information. The site has a number of useful interactive tools including a calculator to Find Your Full Retirement Age.

The Science of Financial Planning

One of the current criticisms of sophisticated retirement planning systems is that none of them took into account a scenario similar to the market downfall of 2008. You can read more about it in this article titled Financial Planners Rethink Monte Carlo Simulation Tools on the Financial Planning magazine web site.

Regardless of how many more Monte Carlo scenarios we include in modeling systems, the likelihood of capturing all key future financial events is of course impossible.

So what is the bottom line on Monte Carlo simulation? If you have the time to dig up all of the required data, do it. If you have a portfolio large enough for an advisor to spend the time with you to complete the comprehensive questionnaire, do it. But understand this point:

The purpose of the planning process is to make you aware of key expenses you will face in retirement such as out-of-pocket health care expenses. The future cost of a cable TV bill is, in my opinion, not extremely relevant. Helpful I guess, but not relevant.

A simple system excluding Monte Carlo simulation can be used by all of us regardless of total savings and it will generate results that will achieve the goal without spending hours gathering historical data. Remember, the financial plan is only a road map and guide. It will never be an exact science. Simple planning tools are not comprehensive but they do work.